Ua emi ka mākeke no nā mea kanu PV nui ma Kina ma mua o ka hapakolu i ka makahiki 2018 ma muli o ka hoʻoponopono ʻana i nā kulekele Kina, kahi i hoʻoulu ai i ka nalu o nā lako makamae ma ka honua holoʻokoʻa, e alakaʻi ana i nā kumukūʻai pae honua no ka PV hou (non-tracking) a hiki i $60/MWh i ka ʻO ka hapa lua o 2018, i lalo o 13% mai ka hapaha mua o ka makahiki.
He $52/MWh ke kumukūʻai pae honua a BNEF no ka hoʻoulu ʻana i ka makani ma kahakai, ma lalo o 6% mai ka hapa mua o ka nānā ʻana o 2018.Ua hoʻokō ʻia kēia ma muli o ke ʻano o nā turbines haʻahaʻa a me kahi kālā ikaika.Ma India a me Texas, ʻaʻole i kākoʻo ʻia ka mana makani ma kahakai i kēia manawa e like me $27/MWh.
I kēia lā, ua ʻoi aku ka ikaika o ka makani ma mua o nā mea kanu hui pū ʻia (CCGT) i hoʻolako ʻia e ke kinoea shale haʻahaʻa ma ke ʻano he kumu o ka hanauna nui hou ma ka hapa nui o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa.Inā ʻoi aku ka nui o nā kumukūʻai kinoea kūlohelohe i $3/MMBtu, hōʻike ka loiloi a BNEF e pilikia ana nā CCGT hou a me nā mea i loaʻa i kēia manawa.lā houa me ka makani makani.ʻO ia ke ʻano o ka liʻiliʻi o ka manawa holo a ʻoi aku ka maʻalahi o nā ʻenehana e like me nā mea kanu peaker gas maoli a me nā pākaukau e hana maikaʻi ana i nā helu hoʻohana haʻahaʻa (nā mea hiki).
ʻO nā kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe ma Kina a me ʻAmelika ua hoʻonui i ke koʻikoʻi i nā kumukūʻai kālā no ka PV a me ka makani i nā makahiki ʻelua i hala iho nei, akā ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi o nā kumukūʻai ʻelua e ka emi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai o nā lako.
Ma Asia Pākīpika, ʻoi aku ka pipiʻi o ka lawe ʻana mai i ke kinoea maoli, ʻo ia hoʻi, ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi o ka hoʻokūkū ma mua o nā mea kanu puhi lanahu hou ma $59-$81/MWh.He mea pale nui kēia i ka hōʻemi ʻana i ka ikaika kalapona o ka hana mana ma kēia wahi.
I kēia manawa, ʻo nā pākahi pōkole ke kumu kūʻai haʻahaʻa loa o ka pane wikiwiki hou a me ka hiki ke kiʻekiʻe i nā ʻoihana waiwai āpau koe wale nō ka US.Ma ʻAmelika, hāʻawi ke kinoea kūlohelohe haʻahaʻa i kahi pono no ka piʻi ʻana i nā mea kanu kinoea.Wahi a kahi hōʻike hou, e hāʻule nā kumukūʻai pākaukau i kahi 66% e 2030 i ka ulu ʻana o ka ʻoihana hana kaʻa uila.ʻO ia hoʻi ka emi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai hoʻopaʻa pākaukau no ka ʻoihana mana uila, e hōʻemi ana i nā kumukūʻai mana kiʻekiʻe a me ka hiki ke maʻalahi i nā pae i loaʻa ʻole ma mua e nā mea kanu peaker fossil-fueled kuʻuna.
ʻO nā pākahi i hui pū ʻia me PV a i ʻole makani e lilo i mea maʻamau, a hōʻike ʻia ka hōʻike ʻana o ka BNEF i nā mea kanu lā a me nā makani hou me nā ʻōnaehana mālama pākaukau 4-hola ua paʻakikī ke kumu kūʻai me ka ʻole o nā haʻawina e hoʻohālikelike ʻia me nā mea kanu hou a me nā mea kanu kinoea hou. Auseteralia a me Inia.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: ʻOkakopa-22-2021